Missouri solar payback in 2026: 9 years, even without the federal tax credit.

For a typical Missouri homeowner installing a 10 kilowatt system through Solar Assure at $2.70 per watt, the simple payback is approximately 9 years. This assumes Ameren Missouri territory with average annual usage of 14,400 kilowatt-hours, retail-rate net metering at approximately $0.14 per kilowatt-hour, the 25% Solar Assure Midas Wealth check (Section 48E commercial credit pass-through, since the federal residential ITC expired December 31, 2025), and historical 4% Missouri electric rate inflation. Net out-of-pocket: $20,250. Year-1 annual savings: $2,020. Total 25-year savings: approximately $78,845. Net 25-year benefit: approximately $58,595. Payback timelines vary by utility territory, system size, household usage, roof orientation, and shading.

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), signed by President Trump in July 2025, accelerated the expiration of the residential solar Investment Tax Credit (Section 25D of the Internal Revenue Code) from its previously legislated 2034 phase-out to a hard sunset on December 31, 2025. Systems installed and placed in service on or before December 31, 2025 qualified for the 30% federal credit. Systems installed January 1, 2026 or later do not qualify for any federal residential solar tax credit. The commercial/utility-scale solar tax credit (Section 48E) was preserved with a longer phase-down. Solar Assure's 25% Midas Wealth check program passes a portion of the Section 48E commercial credit value through to residential homeowners as a third-party financial benefit.

The Solar Assure 25% Midas Wealth check is a third-party financial benefit equal to 25% of the gross system cost, paid by check to Solar Assure customers approximately 8 to 12 weeks after final commissioning. The program uses the Section 48E commercial Investment Tax Credit (which is still in effect post-OBBBA) and a sale-leaseback financing structure: the residential system is briefly owned by a commercial entity for the federal tax credit purposes, with the credit value passed through to the homeowner via the third-party Midas Wealth program. The customer ends up as the owner of the system, the federal credit is monetized, and 25% of the gross system value flows back to the customer. This is not a federal Section 25D credit (which expired December 31, 2025); it is a separate, third-party financial structure. Solar Assure cannot legally guarantee the Midas Wealth check, since it depends on third-party financial close, but our customers have received the check on every project we have closed under the program.

Missouri net metering under RSMo 386.890 (Easy Connection Act) is favorable to homeowner payback economics. The statute requires investor-owned utilities (Ameren Missouri, Evergy Missouri Metro, Evergy Missouri West, and Liberty Missouri) to credit residential solar exports at the full retail rate during a billing cycle, on a 1:1 basis. If a system produces more than the home consumes during a billing cycle, the excess is banked as a kilowatt-hour credit and rolled forward. At the end of the annual billing cycle, any remaining net excess generation is paid out at the utility's avoided cost rate (typically $0.03 to $0.05 per kilowatt-hour). For typical Missouri homeowners, this means Solar Assure can size systems to offset close to 100% of annual usage and capture the full retail-rate value of every kilowatt-hour produced. Missouri net metering is more favorable than Kansas net metering.

Yes, but less than most homeowners expect. Ameren Missouri and Evergy Missouri Metro are the two largest investor-owned utilities; both offer 1:1 retail-rate net metering under RSMo 386.890 with similar effective payback economics for typical customers. Liberty Missouri is similar but ended its residential solar rebate program August 6, 2023. Columbia Water and Light is the major variable: this municipal utility offers a $500 per kilowatt residential solar rebate that significantly reduces net out-of-pocket cost. A 10 kilowatt system in Columbia W&L territory has an additional $5,000 rebate on top of the standard Solar Assure 25% Midas Wealth check, which drops simple payback to about 7 to 8 years. Springfield's City Utilities does not offer a comparable rebate. The smaller utilities and rural electric cooperatives have varied policies and should be checked individually.

Battery payback is calculated separately from solar payback because the economics work differently. The Franklin aPower 2 battery installed by Solar Assure costs $15,500 ($1,033 per kilowatt-hour usable, 15 kilowatt-hour usable capacity, 15-year warranty). The simple economic argument for battery is weak in Missouri: with 1:1 retail-rate net metering, the grid effectively functions as a free battery, so a residential battery does not generate marginal economic value over net metering alone. The actual reasons Missouri homeowners buy batteries are: (1) backup power during outages; (2) protection against future net metering policy changes; (3) ability to take advantage of time-of-use rate spreads that Evergy Missouri Metro is rolling out (off-peak $0.09 versus on-peak $0.38 in summer 4 to 8 PM is a 322% spread that batteries can arbitrage); (4) energy independence preferences. None of these are simple payback calculations.

Solar Assure prices residential solar at $2.70 per watt installed in Missouri, which is significantly below the Missouri market average of approximately $3.30 to $3.90 per watt installed (per EnergySage 2026 data). The pricing difference comes from three sources: (1) Solar Assure operates with a leaner sales structure than the door-to-door sales operations that dominate Missouri solar; (2) we install our own systems rather than subcontracting to third-party crews; (3) we earn revenue from installation rather than from financing markups. The 25% Midas Wealth check stacks on top of the lower base price. For a typical 10 kilowatt system, this works out to approximately $20,250 net out-of-pocket from Solar Assure versus $24,000 to $29,000 from competing Missouri installers offering similar equipment quality.

Missouri electric rate inflation has historically run approximately 3 to 5% per year, with the recent trend toward the higher end. Ameren Missouri received a 12% rate increase effective June 1, 2025 (approximately $14 per month for the average residential customer), and as of February 2026 has filed for an additional rate case seeking another double-digit percentage increase. Evergy Missouri Metro filed a rate case on February 6, 2026 requesting a 14.9% increase that would take effect January 1, 2027. The pattern strongly suggests continued rate inflation. Solar Assure's payback projections use a 4% annual rate inflation assumption, which is conservative relative to recent history. Higher actual rate inflation would shorten payback periods and increase 25-year total savings.

Solar Assure uses Aurora Solar production modeling to calculate the specific kilowatt-hour production for each customer's specific roof, accounting for tilt, azimuth (compass direction), shading from trees and adjacent structures, and weather patterns at the property's location. A south-facing roof at 35-degree tilt is the gold standard in Missouri and produces approximately 1,450 kilowatt-hours per kilowatt of installed capacity per year. East-facing or west-facing roofs produce approximately 85% of optimal (1,230 kilowatt-hours per kilowatt). North-facing is generally not viable. Significant shading can reduce production 10 to 40%. If your roof produces less than optimal, your year-1 savings are proportionally lower and payback is proportionally longer. Solar Assure provides specific Aurora Solar production estimates as part of every quote.

Simple payback is the year in which cumulative undiscounted savings equal the net out-of-pocket investment. Discounted payback applies a discount rate (typically 5 to 8%) to future savings to account for the time value of money, which lengthens the payback period. The figures on this page use simple payback because most homeowners think about solar in simple-payback terms. The 9-year simple payback for a typical 10 kilowatt Ameren Missouri system would extend to approximately 11 to 13 years on a discounted-payback basis using a 6% discount rate. The 25-year savings figures cited are also undiscounted; the discounted present value would be lower (approximately $48,000 to $54,000 at a 6% discount rate). Solar Assure can run discounted-payback math for any customer who prefers that framework.

Missouri payback is more favorable than Kansas payback for typical residential customers, primarily because of net metering policy differences. Missouri retains 1:1 retail-rate net metering under RSMo 386.890 with credits banked through the annual cycle and excess paid at avoided cost. Kansas under K.S.A. 66-1263, as amended by HB 2527 effective July 1, 2024, has a 150 kilowatt cap and zeroes out net excess generation credits annually on March 31 with no payout. The practical effect is that Missouri systems can be sized closer to 100% of annual usage to maximize retail-rate value, while Kansas systems are sized closer to 80 to 90% of annual usage to minimize uncompensated annual excess. Kansas does have one offsetting advantage: K.S.A. 79-201 Eleventh provides an active 10-year property tax exemption on solar panels and inverters (not batteries), which Missouri lost in 2022. Net effect: Missouri payback for a typical 10 kilowatt system is approximately 9 years; Kansas payback for the equivalent customer profile is approximately 10 to 11 years.

In rough order of impact: (1) System cost per watt installed: Solar Assure at $2.70 per watt is significantly below market average; this is the single biggest factor. (2) Whether you receive the 25% Midas Wealth check: verify this is part of your contract before signing. (3) Roof orientation, tilt, and shading: Aurora Solar modeling captures this. (4) Your annual electric usage: bigger users see faster payback because the system offsets more dollars. (5) Future Missouri rate inflation: historically 3 to 5%, recently trending higher. (6) Your specific utility and rate plan: Columbia W&L's rebate is significant; Evergy MO Metro time-of-use plans complicate calculations. (7) Whether you finance the system or pay cash: financing extends true payback because of interest costs. (8) Discount rate assumption (if using discounted payback). (9) Panel degradation: modern panels degrade about 0.5% per year. (10) Whether you stay in the home for the full payback period: selling the home before payback realizes only partial value through the home sale price.

Yes, for most Missouri homeowners, but the math is closer than it was before December 31, 2025. The 30% federal residential ITC was a major driver of solar economics for the past decade. Without it, residential solar payback timelines have lengthened by approximately 3 to 5 years for typical customers nationally. Missouri specifically remains attractive because: (1) the Solar Assure 25% Midas Wealth check partially replaces the lost federal credit; (2) Missouri net metering at retail rate (RSMo 386.890) is distinctly favorable; (3) Missouri rate inflation is running above historical average and likely to continue; (4) Missouri's installation labor costs are below national average. The result is approximately 9-year typical payback in Missouri post-ITC, versus 7 years pre-ITC. For homeowners planning to stay in their home 10 or more years, solar still pencils out in Missouri. For homeowners likely to move within 5 years, the math is borderline. Solar Assure's policy is to tell customers honestly when their specific circumstances suggest waiting or skipping solar.